12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

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12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:52 pm

the front page said "writers wanted." Well, I like to write, and I have also been coaching hockey professionally and as my main source of income- I have been able to make a nice chunk of change over the christmas break because I have a TON of time to research (my father nicknamed me "stats" when I was 7 yrs old, sticks 30 yrs later).... you ever play poker for 6 to 8 hours and then dream of cards that night??
I dream hockey dreams.
2 nights ago- $45k 13,000 entries- took 3rd. Yesterday, same tournament, took 21st.
Of course, I play up to 100 rosters in a night, so take it all with a grain of salt.
NHL Profit over x-mas break- $1,524 (3 nights)
YESTERDAY- Stars PP group paid off nicely- Seguin and Benn were littered among the top 10s in large field gpps. I hope you were one of the 5 that read this and used my advice!!
TODAY-- I am going to take a different approach and give you an angle on the 4 game slate tonight- If you are like me, you already know 3 of the 4 road teams are playing b2b games tonight- Chicago in a tougher than meets the eye matchup @ Carolina (Carolina playing very well at home this year), Nashville @ St. Louis, and Anaheim @ Vancouver.
THIS STAT KNOCKED MY SOCKS OFF- you usually dont get such a strong trend in this many games, BUT- these 3 teams have played a total of 18 B2B games this season- out of 18 games, only ONE TIME has the total goals scored gone under 5 (Chicago, 2-1 loss to LA in OT). 5 times has the total hit 5( keep in mind all 5 games are a 5 O/U tonight)... 12- THATS RIGHT. 12 games have gone over. And not barely. of these 12 games, 93 goals have been scored. Thats 7.75 goals a game, folks.
SO- for my gambling friends- you are COMPLETELY in the right to place 3 bets on all 3 overs today. I AM NOT A FORTUNE TELLER- you may lose all 3. But the stats above don't lie.
For my daily fantasy friends--- WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN, BASIL??? (who does Austin Powers quotes in 2016??)
Here is some thing VERY INTERESTING- In these 12 out of 18 games that have gone over- ONLY ONCE has a team scored 8 goals (Anaheim a 8-3 loser @ Columbus and Anaheim a 6-1 winner vs Nashville).... the other 10 games- no one has gone over 5 goals. That means balanced scoring in these games.
On a 4 game slate, HERE IS MY ATTACK PLAN TONIGHT- I will be featuring as many stacks from each game individually- for example, a common roster for me will look like this- from the 3 games with road teams on a B2B, I will roster road team 2nd line, Home team 1st line, Martin Jones in net, defense as much value as I can. Once I finish this roster, I will DUPLICATE THE ROSTER AND PUT IN STEVE MASON.
I will be fading the Philly/San Jose game quite a bit. I will gamble that this game stays UNDER 5, and I will duplicate EVERY ROSTER I make that DOES NOT INCLUDE Philly or SJ players so they feature BOTH goalies.
YES- I will hurt half with the loser... BUT- we have reduced our goalie stress quite a bit in the process.

GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!!
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:57 pm

additions-Ive been coaching professionally for 17 years. Sounds like a braggart- just trying to gain your trust!
reference to yesterdays Stars plays can be found on the ost from yesterday.... if I couldve worked in Holden over Zadarov I wouldve placed much better. Zadarov did lay quite well last night, however, and I suggest you consider him before his price rises- this is not an injury move- Zadarov has earned the time, and Colorado would like to put Barrie in a better position, as he is among the worst +/- numbers in the league. Zadarov is here to stay on that blue line imo.
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:04 pm

DEFENSIVE VALUE- D-combos that skate 5 v 5 together and get PP time (no combos today feature pairings that play on the same PP)
Pesce($3600)/Slavin($4100)
Josi ($5800)/ Ellis ($4400)
Stetcher($4100)/ Edler ($4100)

DraftKings- Line us current as of 1pm
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:10 pm

NOTE- when building rosters tonight FIGHT THE URGE to spend all of your budget. Spending every $$ to build a roster on a 4 game slate is uneccessary.

Its nights like this I hope Burns goes under 5 points. I anticipate he will be highest owned. I will play him, but try to lay him under the total % he is being used... a small insurance plan to curb loses with obvious upside.
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/30- News and Notes- 12/29 review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:43 pm

UPDATE- Dell Starting for Flyers over Jones.... This makes my play even better imo- We just need to root against Jake Allen. At home. Meh. Such is the life of a gpp player- if Nashville can pot 2 goals, there is a very strong chance one of the 2 goalies from the Phi/SJ game will equal or better him, considering Nashville can struggle to get the puck on met, and might be without Neal as well. The ownership for Dell will be lower than Jones, so we benefit.
I will also have exposure to Allen in St. Louis. OVERALL ORDER in gpp weight for my rosters tonight- (Philly hasnt announced starter, Nash and Ana havent either, assuming back ups)
1. Mason/Dell (tie)
2. Allen
3. Miller/Bernier
4. Ward / Darling
5. Saros/ Allen

I will duplicate rosters with goalies and use Allen independently with- St. Louis 14-2-4 @ home, turns my head considering Nashville b2b and back up minder with Neal potentially out
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am


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