12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

All Things Fantasy Hockey

12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:02 pm

Well, we were right and we were wrong!! As mentioned, I dont bet lines and totals, so the o/u theory was wrong in Vegas. HOWEVER- we were somewhat successful in the attack plan for DFS as the 3 games we targeted offered the most goals, and the game we faded offered a shut out.
The big winners had Forsberg and Dell or Saros.
Personally, I invested $500 and lost $76. For gpp regulars, these are the breaks, and I'm not too upset when my profit margin depended on the MOST LIKELY scenario, St. Louis potting at least 2 goals.
Total Profit since 12/27- $1448 (all $4 gpp tickets on DK)

I am a HUGE Devils fan, so my brother and I put in a couple dozen rosters to enjoy the early games a little more.... we are rooting for a high score in Boston and a low score in NJ... 20% of the entries played Holtby or Schnieder instead of Brabauer and Kinkaid...

Which leads me into my early leads-
Playing high end players who are game time decisions can be risky business. Playing it safe is for cash games and 50/50s, Im a gpper, so taking advantage of low owned players is very important- you arent really looking for a guy who you took at low ownership to be the first star of the night across the board (although that would be greatness!) as much as you are looking for a diverse roster that will allow you the originality to climb the charts without too much duplication from the rest of the field. You can't put up a goose egg, don't get me wrong- but having that 1-2% owned guy who pays his value or better is a great move (Manson on Anaheim with Vatanen out is a great example... his one SH assist paid him off in the first period, and he was extremely low owned for a 4 game slate).

This all leads me to Letang. He skated with the top power play unit at practice yesterday, and I believe he will skate tonight. He is a game time decision. With his cost being high and his tag being listed as 'DL' on DK, I believe a lot of people will blow right by him as they build rosters (like the 20% that played goalies that arent even playing!).
Letang and Schultz are rumored to be skating together on the top unit as well.

As I start to research, I like two defensive stacks on the board right now- Letang and Schultz (unless the line-up has them split up come game time) and Yandle and Ekblad in Dallas tonight. I think its common knowledge to stack lines, but you don't see as many defensive stacks as you should at the lower level $4 tournaments.

Roughly 25% of my rosters will feature 2nd line road teams (Hayes, Vesey, Miller for NYR in Colorado is a great example of a line I will be targeting tonight) and defensive stacks that play 5 v 5 together and also play on EITHER PP unit, as Ekblad and Yandle are the only two D men who skate on the same PP and 5 v 5 unit together on tonights slate.

If you are wondering, why 2nd line road teams?? In hockey, home teams get the last change, so they typically play the best D-men they have vs top lines. Stepan/Krieder/Zuccarello are CLEARLY the NYR top line... now, if you have read my previous posts, you will see that Zadarov has been pumped up by Colorado recently and will get tons of ice- expect to see Colorado put Zadarov vs the Stepan line... this leaves the guy I am targeting my Hayes/Vesey/Miller play- Tyson Barrie.

Colorado moved Zadarov to relieve Tyson Barries defensive responsibility. Barrie is among the worst in the NHL in +/-, so the coach in Colorado is understandably trying to free the talented blue liner up.

I will also feature Tyson Barrie in some rosters due to the attempt to get guys going- coaching attention like that can lead to quick results- see radulov recent line change, as well as trochek- when you see top 2 line adjustments and top D line adjustments, note these in your daily plays- they often pay off. I can remember the feeling of being switched when things get stale--- the point is to increase passion, which is the most influential improvement any player who gets a little stale needs, at any level...

SPEAKING OF PASSION- USA v. Canada. If you love hockey, you have to watch this game!!!! My close friends nephew is playing for Canada, and I'd love to see Mr. Caleb Jones play a helluva game for the States... but if you want to see passion at its highest tonight, don't watch the NHL! This is the game of the day.

Have a great new years, folks- nice to see some people reading this! if the count keeps rising, I'll keep writing.

PS- Chris Draper and Gary Roberts almost dropped em a few minutes ago in the Toronto/detroit alumni game on NHL Network just now, legit, not playing around---- Ty Domi and Joey Kocur broke it up. I tell no lies. Hope you got the chuckle in with me!
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:00 pm

Goaltending---
For the record, I hate goaltending for DFS. SO-I spend a little to somewhat remove the issue. Tonight, there is only one game in Vegas with a 5 goal O/U, the rest are 5.5. Its the late game as well, SJ/LAK. LAK can't score goals to save their lives right now, and I'm sure a fresh Martin Jones isn't a welcome sight. LAK can hold teams down, though, as Doughty has taken onthe roll of chasing around top lines.
For you hockey fanatics, I'll say it again- Martin Jones. in LA. Jones blew onto the scene 2 years ago filling in for Jonathan Quick. I would bet my life savings that this was the best rookie performance in his first 10 games in the NHL since the lockout (assuming he took on a starting roll).

He knows the shooters, as LAK hasnt changed much the last 2 years....at all, really.

Budaj has been great lately as well.... my recommendation is to duplicate rosters and feature both goalies- Here is a base example of a roster- NYR 2nd Line, Florida top D pair, Jones, and a full line with a guy that I believe will be low owned, like the 2nd line center in Montreal, Torrey Mitchell, logging roughly 16 minutes a game on a top 2 line @ $3700 w/ a fairly inexpensive Byron and radulov as the feature guy.., with only 12 people reading this, I don't mind giving a nice roster I will be using out!!
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

Postby dbacksfan414 » Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:14 pm

I'm guessing you play a bunch of daily fantasy? I'm not the gambling type, so I don't play daily or money leagues.
dbacksfan414
 
Posts: 3119
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 3:49 am

Re: 12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:19 pm

Sure do! Tyson Barrie pumped one in 2 minutes in! Stacked forwards from tampa, florida, dallas, calgary and edmonton in terms of heavy weight. I'm always scattering a few across the board, but Im focus the majority of my money on what I think will go strong. Ha- radulov and trochek scored in the first also--- this could be a big day!
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am

Re: 12/31 News and Notes 12/30 Review

Postby RyanPfeiffer » Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:21 pm

i used to dabble, but I hit a $10,000 winner on a $3 dollar ticket one night stacking royals and padres- both teams went nutty and i took first out of 50k- kept half for a budget and away we have gone! I only play the small $$ gpps- less experience amongst the field.
RyanPfeiffer
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:23 am


Return to Fantasy Hockey

cron